Gold Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels

  • Gold is poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance with XAU/USD rallying more than 19% off the February low.
  • The recovery is now pressing into technical resistance, with lateral barriers just overhead that must be cleared to sustain momentum.
  • Event Risk: US State of the Union Address tonight and Friday's PPI inflation data.
Gold Weekly Technical Chart XAUUSD
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Bulls vs. Resistance

Gold delivered a dramatic reversal this month, recovering sharply after a historic selloff that briefly threatened the broader 2025 uptrend. The rally is now running into uptrend resistance, putting bulls at a make-or-break moment. A sustained push higher would bring record highs back into view, while hesitation here may signal that a broader consolidation phase is still unfolding.

In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast, we noted that the record-breaking rally had exhausted with a spectacular reversal. From a trading standpoint, we emphasized that losses would need to be limited to 4604 for the 2025 uptrend to remain viable. XAU/USD plummeted more than 21.3% off the record high in the following days, falling as low as 4402, but the bears were unable to secure a weekly close below the critical 4600 mark.

Technical Indicators RSI Gold
Weekly RSI remains in overbought territory (+79), favoring the bulls for now.

Key Pivot Levels to Watch

The advance is testing the median-line of the 2025 pitchfork this week with lateral resistance eyed just higher at 5342/43. This region is defined by the 100% extension of the monthly advance and the 78.6% retracement of the decline off the record high. A Topsides breach or weekly close above this threshold would threaten another run toward the record high at 5520–5615.

Support & Resistance Map

Resistance: 5342/43 (Key), 5520-5615, 5768

Support: 4894 (HWC), 4726 (Invalidation), 4533

US Economic Data Impact on Gold

The Fundamental Driver: Politics and Inflation

Traders will be closely eyeing President Trump’s State of the Union address tonight for potential remarks on key macro and geopolitical issues. Taxes, tariffs, and Federal Reserve governance are just some of the key themes traders will be listening for. While State of the Union addresses typically have limited impact on markets, traders have remained on edge since the recent SCOTUS decision and with mid-terms on the horizon, the president may look to bolster support with new policy initiatives.

Keep in mind we also get another inflation update into the close of the week with the January Producer Price Index (PPI) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance.

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